Nifty can bounce back?

Yes, my levels are although being hit like a bulls eye, though my judgment of an early bounce back was negated on tuesday 3rd june'08. The level of 4670 got hit on that day itself and Nifty closed at 4707, then today a big correction happened and brought nifty to a low of 4550.
There are three factors right now governing our markets at present, one is the Oil factor, second is the Left Party which is hitting the government from the back, and blackmailing for removing the support to the government if oil price is hiked...although oil price hike is now confirmed,which could be a big relief to our so called NAVRATNA PSU oil companies. Third factor is DOW JONES, which can bring an indirect rally in our markets if some rally comes in Dow jones, and these Dow Jones is moving according to Oil.
Currently Dow Jones is 80 points up as i type, if Dow Jones closes with a good margin up, then we should see a relief rally tomorrow itself. I still maintain that 4950-5000 level can be touched this month.
Overall a rangebound market will be there.

5000 or 4670 which will touch earlier?

We could be heading to a dangerous zone now, with a crucial support at 4820 which if broken and nifty closes below it then worst could hit our mkt and a correction to 4670 is quite possible. A little ray of hope is on the basis of weekly charts,which show that Nifty may touch 5000-5020 before heading downwards, so all in all this month will also be a choppy month and only trend followers will be able to make money in intraday following some strict rules,otherwise be ready for getting wiped out in this risky market!

We could be heading either 5500-5600 or to 4800-4900 levels! read more...

Nifty has shown some good movements since 2weeks, and thanks to some government holidays which also helped the mkt from correcting further as some correction happend on 11th april on friday, when a huge correction wiped of 300 points from Dow jones and on Nikkei around 400 points, and on 14th april there was a holiday here and many traders must have thanked to SEBI,otherwise that day could have been another black monday. Now what i think is that we are on the mercy of Dow jones once again, and if some serious bad news comes out, we should be ready for short selling any day. Nifty has a strong resistance at 5215-5240, nifty should close above it with good volumes, then we can see 5500 very easily, otherwise a correction to the level of 4900 cannot be ruled out.
My view is on the basis of just seeing the charts is that the positive divergence pattern is still there and have not completed yet, this means i am more biased toward an upside than on downside, we might see a small correction but eventually the mkt is headed upwards on the basis of charts, and not considering the volatile and undecided Dow Jones!

Volatility will be the order of this Week!

Weekly chart patterns show that Nifty has still not acheived its lower targets yet, and we might see nifty moving in a range this week too.If nifty touches 4400-4300 levels this week, then expect a good bounce back to 4900-5000-5100 levels by 3rd week of april it self, or this could be acheived this week, only if the under current is still bullish.
I advise people to buy Nifty 4900 April call once nifty touches 4400 level,which could happen soon this week only.
Best Of Luck!

Expect Nifty at 4600 by coming today or coming monday!

Yes this is quite possible now, as weak patterns are being formed by many blue chip stocks and as well as by Nifty index, we can expect nifty to touch 4600 and will be very choppy and volatile.icicbank,reliance,orchidchemical can be shorted in futures .

Nifty could to touch 5140!

I expect a big bounce to a level which very few people might agree with me at such times, but the patterns and divergences i am seeing on nifty show that worst is nearly over and we should see some good times ahead(for those who are stuck at higher levels) and some recovery, cannot be over ruled at these times.
Nifty is showing very strong positive divergences which can lead to an intermediate uptrend till 5120-5140 levels which is a strong resistance range for it currently, we nearly managed to touch the previous low of 4420 on nifty future, nifty touched a low of 4476 on 17th March, and now if this low is maintained then a bounce back in green is not far away.
I would be the first person to buy these stocks tomorrow when market will open and buy around 10:20am, reliance,sail,tatasteel(my tgt is 730-740), reliance energy,acc.

Best of Luck!

Dow Jones, can soon give a bounce back!

I expect a bounce back on Dow jones industrial average very soon as its showing signs of oversold and +ve divergence which may take it back to 12100+ levels, although this bounce will not be very strong and i expect a rangebound to +ve market from here, it may be good for our markets as we need to maintain the current levels to get a bounce back,otherwise will are heading straight to 4400 level on nifty.
Considering that these days DOW JONES is moving our markets and Sensex+Nifty are dancing to the tunes of Dow Jones, we should also see some recovery in coming days.
On the whole short selling is not advised!

Are we heading towards 5050?

Yes! this is quite possible now on the basis of technical charts, nifty is showing some reversal patterns and the good news is that MACD is showing a +ve divergence which could further support the upside on nifty and we see a technical bounce this week itself, but above 5050,the main hurdle will be to cross 5120, from where correction could be seen and we could see further lower levels.
That is a future view, but presently I see a technical bounce soon this week itself, which will take Nifty to 5050 level atleast.Reliance,Ongc,ICICIbank,sbi,DLF these stocks will rally the most,and not to mention the midcaps.
Nifty should maintain the higher level of 4800 to get this bounce,otherwise we could consider yesterday's rally as a short covering only.
I advise visitors/users of this blog to buy March 5200 call of Nifty which is currently around Rs32-33, my target is roughly 150 on it.

Ape the West, leave the rest!

Indians like to follow the western countries and that is what our stock market is also doing, When DOW is down, Nifty is down as well, when Dow is up, Nifty is Up too, what a nice gesture!
One cannot do anything in this case, as the number of FII's have increased their exposure to our markets and when they exit from foreign markets they exit from our market as well, and vice versa.
As I posted last time that Dow closing will give the guidance not the budget, the same thing happened very much on monday, market crashed! This is the impact of Dow, our market fell like a rock from the cliff.
4740 is the last support which if broken then 4400, and below 4400 we will see 4000, which is right now looking quote far away, but could be tested if DOW jones does the Bunjee Jumping!

Dow jones closing will be the main guidance for monday!

Budget has been basically an "AAM admi" one but the main problem basically lies in world markets movement.Today if Dow jones closes in negative then we might be heading towards 5050 on monday on Nifty.
I am seeing a big move on monday,at one time Nifty was nearly 200 points down today, but later some buying came in, in the form of short covering by some institutions( as such a big swing can be done by only institutions).
The range for the month of March is 5270-5050,either side breakout and closing of the Nifty below/above these levels will be the coming intermediate trend of the market, and as posted in previous articles, i am not that bullish,i would be more interested in buying OTM(Out of the money) puts on monday.
Watch out for reliance as this could lead the fall and weaken Nifty further.
Other view is that if Dow jones closes in +ve today with a good healthy rally then we can expect a flat to +ve opening and I expect reliance to get stronger,and bring the mkt in green for sometime.

Best of Luck!

Personal income TAX exepmtion limit raised... hurrah!

Many tax payers who paid less than 4000 or near 4000 as TAX last year will now need not pay even that amount,as relief of Rs4000 has been given to male tax payers and slab raised to 1.5lacs and 1.8lacs for women.
This is a welcoming decision and i hope this is implemented soon for 08-09.
Congrats to all Tax payers!

Flukes work best in choppy market!

I am a good analyzer but i am not a good guesser!, when we say this "i do technical analysis on stocks n commodities" it means i use computer,software,internet and stock n commodities data which is processed in the charts and then using the rules and chart patterns plus the indicators we come to the conclusion that stock market or a particular stock is heading towards a particular target,this method fails when market moves in a small range and doesnt follows the market mechanics, i.e. the stock/index moves in a direction in a few minutes then all of a sudden reverses its trend showing indecision among the traders.
The similar pattern is seen in daily charts as well. Now if some kid is told to sell a stock if touches a high and buy if it touches a low, then he would make money in such a small range choppy mkt, but an expert in technical analysis who beleives in trading in a trend will 101% lose money, as what he has learned and practised since 5-10yrs of his career, everything goes opposite to what he is doing, this happens with Mutual Fund managers and also with Forex/bullion traders.
Losses are a part of technical analysis, but technical analysis is a form of analysis to reduce losses and maximize profits, but in a rangebound- sideways market, flukes work best, and i encourage people to do that, who are restless and want to trade everyday, even when there is no trend, like in this month, which has been basically a trendless month.
In such a market options come very handy, and using different strategies to counter the sideways market.
Coming to the point, stay away from stocks till a trend emerges, or trade in options only if you know what are options!

The call+put writing now at Rs13,profit of Rs65 per lot.

The call+put writing which was given two days back was at 78 now the Nifty options 5000put and 5300 call combined value is 13 only at the time of writing this article.
A total of Rs65 profit per lot, which Rs65 x 30 = 3150,today also happens to be the expiry day and who knows both the options might get zero by closing of the market.
maximum profit will be 78 only in this strategy.

Are we heading down south? chances are 60:40 !

Yes! we could be heading towards the range of Nifty 4600-4800 levels, if and only if reliance remains below 2621 for another few days and that could be the last nail on the coffin.
Reliance is the culprit and reliance will be the leader, this has been proved all the times when market is weak and when market is strong.
Reliance has a very strong resistance at 2621 which it is not able to break,as happened yesterday also, it did managed to make a high above 2621, but failed to manage to close above it and closed down in negative below 2600.
This is an indication that we could be having a possible correction tomorrow and the budget will be announced tomorrow as well(if my dates information are right), I am not very optimistic about the budget and our FM will be more interested in more collecting tax from the stock market rather raising the IT slab to 2lacs, which we might never able to witness in coming 50years, and which is highly anticipated among the middle class and higher middle class indians.
Coming to the point, I would be more interested in short selling at highs, and with every support level being broken.
My simple suggestion "Make hay while sun shines" and when sun is not shining stay inside your homes coz the bears roam in the dark nights!

Best of Luck!

Rangebound movement! Call+Put writing.

Nifty is in a small range and as anticipitated by me, we are more interested in call n put writing and taking the benefit of this rangebound movement,one can make good profit from options.
I dont see nifty heading above 5285-5300 which is its resistance currently,and neither its heading below 5000,therefore selling both the calls n puts of these ranges which were available yesterday at 75(put) and 20 (call), one could make good profit of Nifty remains in the 5000-5300 by the expiry date.Till now the value of both the options are comined 67, which was earlier 95,so a total profit of Rs28 per lot was coming just yesterday only. Maximum profit is obivously 95. Call n put writing is only possible when mkt/index/stock is expected to remain in a range,if the instrument breaks out from the range, then loss starts happening, so one has to closely watch the movement.
Take care!

We might be heading to a confirmed bottom?

Although this is not confirmed yet that we are heading to a bottom and from there we will see a bounce back,but the heavyweights could be making a last bottom in this intermediate correction and then a bounce back is quite possible.
The problem here is will the stocks obey the last lows of the previous heavy correction in end of Jan 08? Nifty nearly made a low of 4400, we might see nifty touching 4600-4800 but 4400 could be obeyed and a good bounce back to 5500-5600 levels could be seen, provided 5300 level is broken on the upside with good volumes, which nifty couldnt do it on Monday.
Another possibility which cannot be ruled out is the pattern of DOW JONES index, which is also making a bottoming formation and could be on the verge of an intermediate bottom and ready for a good bounce back, but these levels and times are the ones which are very dangerous as if a new low is made in DOW jones and Nifty then we are heading further southwards.
I am tracking Reliance closely and i see it hitting 2200-2300 range soon.
This week will be the highest volatile week.

Sustainability is the question!

One day up, another day down, then up then down, this is the movement of indian stock market these days, just as if we are having a camel ride. If this is the way our markets are going to move in another 1month, retail investors will run away like a mad dog and think of keeping their money in banks where they get safe 9-10% P.A. returns. Its a shame that only 4% of indians invest in stocks, and mutual funds, and hardly 1% invest in insurance. Is this 9% growth?? please our finance minister, where is the retail participation in stock market? and when they come they are let down by huge corrections and volatilities of the market.
Well the answer lies in the hands of retail investors itself. They need to study the company's business before investing in it, 90% retail traders/investors just watch TV or buy on the basis of uneducated brokers and friends, and end up losing big chunk of their savings.
I have been time to time insisting on learning technical analysis as in this study you dont need to watch TV or newspaper, the charts tell everything. The problem is nobody wants to take pain and give time to learning, everyone wants to bite a slice of easy money, and what happens? their tongues get burnt!
Wake up retail boys n girls, wake up!

Start accumulating Reliance!

Yes, the chart patterns show that we are very near a bottom and we might see a good upside in reliance,tatasteel,welspun gujarat,relcapital.These stocks cab exhibit good upside as a bounce back is very near.Also Dow jones is in positive today, and did a rally of around 200 points.My tgt of reliance 2500+ by coming friday.

Relpower will bring mkts up,is it possible?

Is it possible that Relpower listing will be welcomed with a rally? yes quite possible. Relpower is from the power sector and stocks like NTPC,Powergrid,BHEL, and many other power stocks will move up very well, this will also effect Reliance and can take it up.In charts also stocks dont seem to be so weak now as the expected correction has happened and a small bounce back is quite possible. Escorts looks very good and a target of 120 is possible tomorrow in it.

DLF shorted using the newsletter!

Currently we are short in DLF future using the pivot trading newsletter, at 812 and covered the stock at 797 in feb fut, a total of 15 rupees profit in 1lot, which is Rs6000 today.

Our Pivot trading newsletter.

i would like to give a small insight to my most popular newsletter which is emailed in the night or before mkt hours to my clients. This is only valid for today. please download it from here http://www.bookprofit.com/pivot-levels-format.pdf this is for intraday only.

Best of Luck!

A Small correction cannot be overuled.

Nifty and Reliance chart shows that a small correction is very much possible on the cards as the pattern shows that reliance is moving up with small volumes and a small intraday weakness in it will lead to a heavy correction.Reliance can touch 2400-2450 levels during intraday itself, which may happen this week itsel.
This week could be a roller coaster one for intraday traders, and infact for everyone.
Reliance closed today at 2617.
Nifty Futures at 5480.
Nifty has a possibility of 5100-5200 levels.
I am giving these levels much in advance, so the possibility of these levels going wrong is also there, please consider this as a view and not a financial advice.

Best of Luck!

Nifty resistance at 5625!

Nifty has made a great comeback,as predicted in this blog, if someone visits this blog regularly, he/she will be benefitted greatly as with my knowledge of charts i can give good turning points in advance and on that basis once time his/her buy/sell strategy on stocks/futures.

Currently it looks like Nifty is heading towards 5625 which is again a strong resistance, if not crossed with volumes then consider a small mid-term correction which can happen this week on any day or in intraday, watchout for this level in Nifty spot and at the same time watch Nifty futures, as Futures move according to the underlying security, as this is the principle in Derivatives. If you dont know this, then you are a newbie and even after good experience you dont know this, then you should think of doing something else apart from stock trading.

Recovery expected,nifty can touch 5300.

We can see a 400 points rally in nifty either today or tomorrow, as the type of candle formed in nifty chart gives an indication of bottom forming or formed. Bothways its quite clear that some bounce back is expected and 5300 is the maximum target for nifty right now, if it crosses this level on closing basis then 5450-5500 can also be acheived, above which its quite difficult to see that if it can touch 6000 levels or not.
FED rate cut is good for our markets and will improve overseas liquidity, but such a massive fall can be recovered by friday closing, is yet to be seen, falling is easy, climbing is difficult, its all GRAVITY!

Correction visible? Mixed movements expected.

I have been on a long holiday since October end 2007 as i got married at that time and went on a honeymoon, after coming back from kerela i was happy to see the market heading towards 18000 and later on as i got busy with pending work, market touched 20000, and now its 20000+ in Jan08.
From here on the regular updates will come on this blog.
Reliance looks pretty stretched up and obviously highly highly overbought,this is the culprit which is going to spoil the rally and this is the one which lead the rally as well.
For today watchout for the support at 3110,below which a straight 3050-3040 levels can be seen.
Also Nifty seems to be making a falling continous pattern in candlesticks, which if falls true in coming days (if nifty closes below 6000) then its going to be disastrous for our market.
Best of Luck!