Technical analysis and trading techniques

Nifty can bounce back?

2008-06-04T20:57:00.002+05:30

Yes, my levels are although being hit like a bulls eye, though my judgment of an early bounce back was negated on tuesday 3rd june'08. The level of 4670 got hit on that day itself and Nifty closed at 4707, then today a big correction happened and brought nifty to a low of 4550.
There are three factors right now governing our markets at present, one is the Oil factor, second is the Left Party which is hitting the government from the back, and blackmailing for removing the support to the government if oil price is hiked...although oil price hike is now confirmed,which could be a big relief to our so called NAVRATNA PSU oil companies. Third factor is DOW JONES, which can bring an indirect rally in our markets if some rally comes in Dow jones, and these Dow Jones is moving according to Oil.
Currently Dow Jones is 80 points up as i type, if Dow Jones closes with a good margin up, then we should see a relief rally tomorrow itself. I still maintain that 4950-5000 level can be touched this month.
Overall a rangebound market will be there.

5000 or 4670 which will touch earlier?

2008-06-02T00:12:00.002+05:30

We could be heading to a dangerous zone now, with a crucial support at 4820 which if broken and nifty closes below it then worst could hit our mkt and a correction to 4670 is quite possible. A little ray of hope is on the basis of weekly charts,which show that Nifty may touch 5000-5020 before heading downwards, so all in all this month will also be a choppy month and only trend followers will be able to make money in intraday following some strict rules,otherwise be ready for getting wiped out in this risky market!

We could be heading either 5500-5600 or to 4800-4900 levels! read more...

2008-05-01T21:08:00.003+05:30

Nifty has shown some good movements since 2weeks, and thanks to some government holidays which also helped the mkt from correcting further as some correction happend on 11th april on friday, when a huge correction wiped of 300 points from Dow jones and on Nikkei around 400 points, and on 14th april there was a holiday here and many traders must have thanked to SEBI,otherwise that day could have been another black monday. Now what i think is that we are on the mercy of Dow jones once again, and if some serious bad news comes out, we should be ready for short selling any day. Nifty has a strong resistance at 5215-5240, nifty should close above it with good volumes, then we can see 5500 very easily, otherwise a correction to the level of 4900 cannot be ruled out.
My view is on the basis of just seeing the charts is that the positive divergence pattern is still there and have not completed yet, this means i am more biased toward an upside than on downside, we might see a small correction but eventually the mkt is headed upwards on the basis of charts, and not considering the volatile and undecided Dow Jones!

Volatility will be the order of this Week!

2008-04-06T21:41:00.002+05:30

Weekly chart patterns show that Nifty has still not acheived its lower targets yet, and we might see nifty moving in a range this week too.If nifty touches 4400-4300 levels this week, then expect a good bounce back to 4900-5000-5100 levels by 3rd week of april it self, or this could be acheived this week, only if the under current is still bullish.
I advise people to buy Nifty 4900 April call once nifty touches 4400 level,which could happen soon this week only.
Best Of Luck!

Expect Nifty at 4600 by coming today or coming monday!

2008-04-04T12:03:00.003+05:30

Yes this is quite possible now, as weak patterns are being formed by many blue chip stocks and as well as by Nifty index, we can expect nifty to touch 4600 and will be very choppy and volatile.icicbank,reliance,orchidchemical can be shorted in futures .

Nifty could to touch 5140!

2008-03-23T20:12:00.003+05:30

I expect a big bounce to a level which very few people might agree with me at such times, but the patterns and divergences i am seeing on nifty show that worst is nearly over and we should see some good times ahead(for those who are stuck at higher levels) and some recovery, cannot be over ruled at these times.
Nifty is showing very strong positive divergences which can lead to an intermediate uptrend till 5120-5140 levels which is a strong resistance range for it currently, we nearly managed to touch the previous low of 4420 on nifty future, nifty touched a low of 4476 on 17th March, and now if this low is maintained then a bounce back in green is not far away.
I would be the first person to buy these stocks tomorrow when market will open and buy around 10:20am, reliance,sail,tatasteel(my tgt is 730-740), reliance energy,acc.

Best of Luck!

Dow Jones, can soon give a bounce back!

2008-03-13T18:11:00.003+05:30

I expect a bounce back on Dow jones industrial average very soon as its showing signs of oversold and +ve divergence which may take it back to 12100+ levels, although this bounce will not be very strong and i expect a rangebound to +ve market from here, it may be good for our markets as we need to maintain the current levels to get a bounce back,otherwise will are heading straight to 4400 level on nifty.
Considering that these days DOW JONES is moving our markets and Sensex+Nifty are dancing to the tunes of Dow Jones, we should also see some recovery in coming days.
On the whole short selling is not advised!

Are we heading towards 5050?

2008-03-10T23:09:00.002+05:30

Yes! this is quite possible now on the basis of technical charts, nifty is showing some reversal patterns and the good news is that MACD is showing a +ve divergence which could further support the upside on nifty and we see a technical bounce this week itself, but above 5050,the main hurdle will be to cross 5120, from where correction could be seen and we could see further lower levels.
That is a future view, but presently I see a technical bounce soon this week itself, which will take Nifty to 5050 level atleast.Reliance,Ongc,ICICIbank,sbi,DLF these stocks will rally the most,and not to mention the midcaps.
Nifty should maintain the higher level of 4800 to get this bounce,otherwise we could consider yesterday's rally as a short covering only.
I advise visitors/users of this blog to buy March 5200 call of Nifty which is currently around Rs32-33, my target is roughly 150 on it.

Ape the West, leave the rest!

2008-03-05T12:02:00.002+05:30

Indians like to follow the western countries and that is what our stock market is also doing, When DOW is down, Nifty is down as well, when Dow is up, Nifty is Up too, what a nice gesture!
One cannot do anything in this case, as the number of FII's have increased their exposure to our markets and when they exit from foreign markets they exit from our market as well, and vice versa.
As I posted last time that Dow closing will give the guidance not the budget, the same thing happened very much on monday, market crashed! This is the impact of Dow, our market fell like a rock from the cliff.
4740 is the last support which if broken then 4400, and below 4400 we will see 4000, which is right now looking quote far away, but could be tested if DOW jones does the Bunjee Jumping!

Dow jones closing will be the main guidance for monday!

2008-02-29T19:37:00.002+05:30

Budget has been basically an "AAM admi" one but the main problem basically lies in world markets movement.Today if Dow jones closes in negative then we might be heading towards 5050 on monday on Nifty.
I am seeing a big move on monday,at one time Nifty was nearly 200 points down today, but later some buying came in, in the form of short covering by some institutions( as such a big swing can be done by only institutions).
The range for the month of March is 5270-5050,either side breakout and closing of the Nifty below/above these levels will be the coming intermediate trend of the market, and as posted in previous articles, i am not that bullish,i would be more interested in buying OTM(Out of the money) puts on monday.
Watch out for reliance as this could lead the fall and weaken Nifty further.
Other view is that if Dow jones closes in +ve today with a good healthy rally then we can expect a flat to +ve opening and I expect reliance to get stronger,and bring the mkt in green for sometime.

Best of Luck!

Personal income TAX exepmtion limit raised... hurrah!

2008-02-29T12:40:00.002+05:30

Many tax payers who paid less than 4000 or near 4000 as TAX last year will now need not pay even that amount,as relief of Rs4000 has been given to male tax payers and slab raised to 1.5lacs and 1.8lacs for women.
This is a welcoming decision and i hope this is implemented soon for 08-09.
Congrats to all Tax payers!

Flukes work best in choppy market!

2008-02-28T23:01:00.003+05:30

I am a good analyzer but i am not a good guesser!, when we say this "i do technical analysis on stocks n commodities" it means i use computer,software,internet and stock n commodities data which is processed in the charts and then using the rules and chart patterns plus the indicators we come to the conclusion that stock market or a particular stock is heading towards a particular target,this method fails when market moves in a small range and doesnt follows the market mechanics, i.e. the stock/index moves in a direction in a few minutes then all of a sudden reverses its trend showing indecision among the traders.
The similar pattern is seen in daily charts as well. Now if some kid is told to sell a stock if touches a high and buy if it touches a low, then he would make money in such a small range choppy mkt, but an expert in technical analysis who beleives in trading in a trend will 101% lose money, as what he has learned and practised since 5-10yrs of his career, everything goes opposite to what he is doing, this happens with Mutual Fund managers and also with Forex/bullion traders.
Losses are a part of technical analysis, but technical analysis is a form of analysis to reduce losses and maximize profits, but in a rangebound- sideways market, flukes work best, and i encourage people to do that, who are restless and want to trade everyday, even when there is no trend, like in this month, which has been basically a trendless month.
In such a market options come very handy, and using different strategies to counter the sideways market.
Coming to the point, stay away from stocks till a trend emerges, or trade in options only if you know what are options!

The call+put writing now at Rs13,profit of Rs65 per lot.

2008-02-28T10:40:00.002+05:30

The call+put writing which was given two days back was at 78 now the Nifty options 5000put and 5300 call combined value is 13 only at the time of writing this article.
A total of Rs65 profit per lot, which Rs65 x 30 = 3150,today also happens to be the expiry day and who knows both the options might get zero by closing of the market.
maximum profit will be 78 only in this strategy.

Are we heading down south? chances are 60:40 !

2008-02-28T08:59:00.002+05:30

Yes! we could be heading towards the range of Nifty 4600-4800 levels, if and only if reliance remains below 2621 for another few days and that could be the last nail on the coffin.
Reliance is the culprit and reliance will be the leader, this has been proved all the times when market is weak and when market is strong.
Reliance has a very strong resistance at 2621 which it is not able to break,as happened yesterday also, it did managed to make a high above 2621, but failed to manage to close above it and closed down in negative below 2600.
This is an indication that we could be having a possible correction tomorrow and the budget will be announced tomorrow as well(if my dates information are right), I am not very optimistic about the budget and our FM will be more interested in more collecting tax from the stock market rather raising the IT slab to 2lacs, which we might never able to witness in coming 50years, and which is highly anticipated among the middle class and higher middle class indians.
Coming to the point, I would be more interested in short selling at highs, and with every support level being broken.
My simple suggestion "Make hay while sun shines" and when sun is not shining stay inside your homes coz the bears roam in the dark nights!

Best of Luck!

Rangebound movement! Call+Put writing.

2008-02-26T00:17:00.002+05:30

Nifty is in a small range and as anticipitated by me, we are more interested in call n put writing and taking the benefit of this rangebound movement,one can make good profit from options.
I dont see nifty heading above 5285-5300 which is its resistance currently,and neither its heading below 5000,therefore selling both the calls n puts of these ranges which were available yesterday at 75(put) and 20 (call), one could make good profit of Nifty remains in the 5000-5300 by the expiry date.Till now the value of both the options are comined 67, which was earlier 95,so a total profit of Rs28 per lot was coming just yesterday only. Maximum profit is obivously 95. Call n put writing is only possible when mkt/index/stock is expected to remain in a range,if the instrument breaks out from the range, then loss starts happening, so one has to closely watch the movement.
Take care!

We might be heading to a confirmed bottom?

2008-02-20T23:36:00.002+05:30

Although this is not confirmed yet that we are heading to a bottom and from there we will see a bounce back,but the heavyweights could be making a last bottom in this intermediate correction and then a bounce back is quite possible.
The problem here is will the stocks obey the last lows of the previous heavy correction in end of Jan 08? Nifty nearly made a low of 4400, we might see nifty touching 4600-4800 but 4400 could be obeyed and a good bounce back to 5500-5600 levels could be seen, provided 5300 level is broken on the upside with good volumes, which nifty couldnt do it on Monday.
Another possibility which cannot be ruled out is the pattern of DOW JONES index, which is also making a bottoming formation and could be on the verge of an intermediate bottom and ready for a good bounce back, but these levels and times are the ones which are very dangerous as if a new low is made in DOW jones and Nifty then we are heading further southwards.
I am tracking Reliance closely and i see it hitting 2200-2300 range soon.
This week will be the highest volatile week.

Sustainability is the question!

2008-02-14T23:26:00.002+05:30

One day up, another day down, then up then down, this is the movement of indian stock market these days, just as if we are having a camel ride. If this is the way our markets are going to move in another 1month, retail investors will run away like a mad dog and think of keeping their money in banks where they get safe 9-10% P.A. returns. Its a shame that only 4% of indians invest in stocks, and mutual funds, and hardly 1% invest in insurance. Is this 9% growth?? please our finance minister, where is the retail participation in stock market? and when they come they are let down by huge corrections and volatilities of the market.
Well the answer lies in the hands of retail investors itself. They need to study the company's business before investing in it, 90% retail traders/investors just watch TV or buy on the basis of uneducated brokers and friends, and end up losing big chunk of their savings.
I have been time to time insisting on learning technical analysis as in this study you dont need to watch TV or newspaper, the charts tell everything. The problem is nobody wants to take pain and give time to learning, everyone wants to bite a slice of easy money, and what happens? their tongues get burnt!
Wake up retail boys n girls, wake up!

Start accumulating Reliance!

2008-02-12T23:41:00.000+05:30

Yes, the chart patterns show that we are very near a bottom and we might see a good upside in reliance,tatasteel,welspun gujarat,relcapital.These stocks cab exhibit good upside as a bounce back is very near.Also Dow jones is in positive today, and did a rally of around 200 points.My tgt of reliance 2500+ by coming friday.

Relpower will bring mkts up,is it possible?

2008-02-10T21:56:00.000+05:30

Is it possible that Relpower listing will be welcomed with a rally? yes quite possible. Relpower is from the power sector and stocks like NTPC,Powergrid,BHEL, and many other power stocks will move up very well, this will also effect Reliance and can take it up.In charts also stocks dont seem to be so weak now as the expected correction has happened and a small bounce back is quite possible. Escorts looks very good and a target of 120 is possible tomorrow in it.

DLF shorted using the newsletter!

2008-02-08T12:45:00.000+05:30

Currently we are short in DLF future using the pivot trading newsletter, at 812 and covered the stock at 797 in feb fut, a total of 15 rupees profit in 1lot, which is Rs6000 today.

Our Pivot trading newsletter.

2008-02-08T11:38:00.000+05:30

i would like to give a small insight to my most popular newsletter which is emailed in the night or before mkt hours to my clients. This is only valid for today. please download it from here http://www.bookprofit.com/pivot-levels-format.pdf this is for intraday only.

Best of Luck!

A Small correction cannot be overuled.

2008-02-05T22:25:00.000+05:30

Nifty and Reliance chart shows that a small correction is very much possible on the cards as the pattern shows that reliance is moving up with small volumes and a small intraday weakness in it will lead to a heavy correction.Reliance can touch 2400-2450 levels during intraday itself, which may happen this week itsel.
This week could be a roller coaster one for intraday traders, and infact for everyone.
Reliance closed today at 2617.
Nifty Futures at 5480.
Nifty has a possibility of 5100-5200 levels.
I am giving these levels much in advance, so the possibility of these levels going wrong is also there, please consider this as a view and not a financial advice.

Best of Luck!

Nifty resistance at 5625!

2008-02-04T21:11:00.000+05:30

Nifty has made a great comeback,as predicted in this blog, if someone visits this blog regularly, he/she will be benefitted greatly as with my knowledge of charts i can give good turning points in advance and on that basis once time his/her buy/sell strategy on stocks/futures.

Currently it looks like Nifty is heading towards 5625 which is again a strong resistance, if not crossed with volumes then consider a small mid-term correction which can happen this week on any day or in intraday, watchout for this level in Nifty spot and at the same time watch Nifty futures, as Futures move according to the underlying security, as this is the principle in Derivatives. If you dont know this, then you are a newbie and even after good experience you dont know this, then you should think of doing something else apart from stock trading.

Recovery expected,nifty can touch 5300.

2008-01-23T00:42:00.000+05:30

We can see a 400 points rally in nifty either today or tomorrow, as the type of candle formed in nifty chart gives an indication of bottom forming or formed. Bothways its quite clear that some bounce back is expected and 5300 is the maximum target for nifty right now, if it crosses this level on closing basis then 5450-5500 can also be acheived, above which its quite difficult to see that if it can touch 6000 levels or not.
FED rate cut is good for our markets and will improve overseas liquidity, but such a massive fall can be recovered by friday closing, is yet to be seen, falling is easy, climbing is difficult, its all GRAVITY!

Correction visible? Mixed movements expected.

2008-01-15T22:58:00.000+05:30

I have been on a long holiday since October end 2007 as i got married at that time and went on a honeymoon, after coming back from kerela i was happy to see the market heading towards 18000 and later on as i got busy with pending work, market touched 20000, and now its 20000+ in Jan08.
From here on the regular updates will come on this blog.
Reliance looks pretty stretched up and obviously highly highly overbought,this is the culprit which is going to spoil the rally and this is the one which lead the rally as well.
For today watchout for the support at 3110,below which a straight 3050-3040 levels can be seen.
Also Nifty seems to be making a falling continous pattern in candlesticks, which if falls true in coming days (if nifty closes below 6000) then its going to be disastrous for our market.
Best of Luck!

16000 is possible in Sensex ?

2007-10-21T19:38:00.000+05:30

Dow Jones corrected on friday and was not looking good, also the information related to Nuclear Deal is unclear, and any bad news related to it can bring futher correction. It seems 16000 is not far away from sensex at this time and also,many stocks were showing overbought levels and stretched patterns which suggested correction.
As posted earlier in this blog,that on 19th Oct we will have a new low,which happened and now we could be heading towards a short term correction,its pretty difficult right now what will happen on Diwali but yes this correction could be an early one before Diwali and we could see a new high around it.
I dont rule out any huge correction,if COngress is adamant on Nuke Deal and goes ahead with it, then its quite possible that the Left will withdraw support and Lower Circuits will be hit.
We all hope that this doesnt happen, but if it does, then God Save Indian Stock Market.

19th Oct doesnt look good!

2007-10-18T16:08:00.000+05:30

Tomorrow is 19th Oct and on the charts it seems that correction is heading on this day.This post is being made after today's market close,although i was a little lazy in posting this news 2-3days back, as i did the analysis around that time, but still i think it could be of some use to those late exiters.
According to Fibonacci Time extension, I have tried to find out the nearest or next lowest low which could be made in the coming future and on which date, the date came out to be 19th Oct, which is surprisingly tomorrow and is a friday, and logically 22nd Oct is the date on which a political news is awaited, and 22nd Oct is a monday,nobody likes uncertainity and same is market,no one wants to keep stocks at home when a very important news is going to come on 22nd Oct,therfore Friday 19th Oct,which is tomorrow is an important day to exit from the market, if some good news comes out or a rumour comes out tomorrow, then things can change and a huge rally is also possible, so tomorrow is an important day to watch out.

Personally, my view says that we should exit at these levels.

DLF first target of 908!

2007-10-03T15:10:00.000+05:30

DLF has a first target of Rs908, which is a very strong resistance for it right now.Looking very good in charts. Volume are looking very good as well. Above 908 our next target will be nearly 970 which is possible on any day from now.

DLF looking good for another upside!

2007-09-30T22:59:00.000+05:30

DLF is showing another upmovement in the EOD graphs and it looks it will hit 800 soon, although 800 is a strong target/resistance for it, but it will surely hit it or its last high of 789.7 above which i expect it to hit 800 atleast, which is possible anyday now. Keep a stop loss of 744 and one can make a long position in it.

Expect market to touch 5000 by Friday!

2007-09-26T23:27:00.000+05:30

I expect nifty to touch 5000+ by friday as the world markets are looing good and DOW jones rallied 100 points last night as well. The IT index also moved up yesterday and this could fuel the rally up further hitting 5000 in a day or within 48hrs time.
My favourites as you know remain the same, Reliance,REL,Relcapital,SBI,Tatasteel(looks good).
My thumb rule of being successful in this highly volatile market is,being with the Big BOYS!
which i mentioned already.I only trade in NSE50 stocks in intraday, i dont waste time in mid-caps.At the end of the day, its the profit which you take back home matters to me,ya i do make losses,but profits are more consistent in my style of trading.

Expect Nifty to touch 4750-4820 levels today!

2007-09-19T11:26:00.000+05:30

I expect Nifty to touch 4750-4820 levels today itself, the higher level could be attained tomorrow.Reliance,SBI,DLF will lead the rally. DLF target for a short term is 730. SBI target is 1800 in 3-4days.

Fed News will give the direction!

2007-09-18T11:04:00.000+05:30

18th Sept is the FED news date, which is today. If FED cuts the interest rates which is what most traders are anticipating, then indian markets will be the ones which be benefitted the most out of it.If FED keeps the interest rates unchanged, then a small correction and then a small rangebound movement is expected in Nifty; and if FED raises the interest rate which is most unlikely to happen, then expect good correction in Nifty and a rise in USD is most possible situation which is possible.
Even the americans are expecting rate cuts and FED has no choice other than to cut the rate,since stock markets will be effected the most if rate is not cut.
I would be happied to buy a straddle in SBI today and expect good profit tomorrow.

Nifty showing weakness at 4520-4530 range!

2007-09-12T13:07:00.000+05:30

Nifty showing weakness between the range of 4520-4530, and once this range is crossed with volumes we should expect atleast Nifty hitting 4600 level, any adverse news at this junction will lead to a big fall.
Reliance,relcapital,sbi,Petronet looking good for long positions.

Expect market to be rangebound,or a little upside!

2007-09-11T09:22:00.000+05:30

Nifty to remain in a rangebound movement for this week, as the market is waiting for 18th Sept meeting of FED, and waiting to give guidance for intereste rate changes. No doubt in it that an intereste rate cut off in US will be a boon to India and expect the banking sector to rally like any thing. But if the interest rate is not cut and no changes are made, then expect the same small movement in the market and no trend as we are experiencing these days.
Escorts is looking good for a long position, for a target of 115-120.

900bn USD credit card debt on US!

2007-09-08T20:48:00.000+05:30

To some people this thing may sound pretty scary and to some it may sound nothing(if you already in huge debt), but if you an indian and trading in indian stock market then it wont affect your day to day life, but yes it may effect Sensex and other stock markets in the world.
Till now we were facing subprime crisis and also witnessed a small crash on our markets, although it has very little connection with India, but since our indices follow Dow jones and other asian indices so much, that we cannot do much in this case, but we may be going to witness a new type of bad news from US, around 900bn USD debt is piling up on the Banks who have issued credit cards to US citizens, who dont seem to be interested in paying back the money and eventually turning away from their financial responsibilities.
This credit card crisis is not new, this is well known to USA and its increasing every month, as new credit cards are issued every day in US.
IF this debt is not cleared, then a similar crash will be seen, as happened due to subprime crisis, as this credit card mess is much the same in size as compared to the subprime mess made by Americans.
God save indian stock market!

Nikkei has broken an important support! Dow in negative as well.

2007-09-05T22:52:00.000+05:30

Nikkei had an intermediate support at 16175, which it had broken and is around 16158 levels. We expect another 200 points fall in Nikkei which could happen tomorrow and currently DOW is already down around 140 points.
If Dow closes in -ve, we should see a similar effect on our markets as well, that is Sensex, and we might see a correction of around 2% in Sensex as well by tomorrow; this is a possibility from our end, right now its 10:55pm India time, and Dow closes at 1:30am indian time, so if Dow closes in +ve then this effect may not happen, but again as said earlier, Nikkei has broken its important support, so things dont look good right now.
Nifty is showing resistance at 4500-4510 levels.

Nifty looking weak at highs,expect some surprises!

2007-09-04T16:51:00.000+05:30

Nifty is trying to move up but everytime its being pushed down, this shows that selling is coming at highs and a resistance around 4480-4510 is visible, until unless it crosses this resistance range, expect a rangebound to weak market in coming days. Arvind millis looking good, followed by SBI and Reliance for going long.

4400 is a resistance for Nifty; Reliance is strong!

2007-08-30T12:50:00.000+05:30

Nifty is inching up slowly every 15min, this is all due to reliance, since reliance has a strong effect on Nifty. Nifty has to cross 4400 and remain above it for a few minutes to resume upward journey. Since today is the expiry day we should expect some small range movement as traders switch over to the sept futures.

I expect Nifty to touch 4500 today itself! Read more.

2007-08-30T01:51:00.000+05:30

Dow jones rallied more than 250 points yesterday which will be a positive effect on our indices and we should see Nifty touching 4500 today itself, although 4400 is a strong resistance, but we might see a gap up opening today and touching 4500 will be pretty easy for nifty and sensex should open with a minimum 300 points up gap.
Tatasteel is looking good for buying, one can buy tatasteel is it moves above 666, for a target of 675, for the second target, if it crosses 678, then next target will be 695, a good jump is possible in tatasteel.
Centurytextile has made a 52-week high and i expect it touch touch 830-840 in coming days.Buying can be initiated in Centurytextile if it crosses 800 for a target of Rs825-830.

Expect a heavy correction today in Nifty!

2007-08-29T01:39:00.000+05:30

Dow closed with -275 points last night and nikkei futures were around 15824, which means roughly 400 points fall since afternoon. I expect Sensex to correct today with atleast 400-500 points fall correction and a 100 point fall in Nifty straight away in first 10min-15min of opening trade in Nifty itself.
Nifty below 4190 will touch 4135, and below 4130 i expect it to touch 4100, 4100 is a good support which i dont expect to be broken, but since the pressure in fall can be huge, no wonder!
Goodbye Bulls!

Market is poised for a good upside,Nifty can touch 4300!

2007-08-27T00:41:00.000+05:30

Dow jones made a remarkable recovery last friday 24th Aug 2007. This will bring an automatic effect on our markets and I expect Nifty to touch 4300 in a short time. The stocks to invest or buy for going long are SBI,Reliance, Tatasteel above 590 my target is 602 in intraday itself,its good for short term, infact TATASTEEL is expected to cross 602 mark as well, and if it does it then next target for me will be 618, this is possible on the same day, but it all depends on the volume of the stock.
Another stock which i would like to trade will be OMAXE,which if crosses 334, my target will be 350 in day or two.
DLF has a resistance at 573 above which I expect it touch 584 the same day, provided it moves with good volumes.

Technical analysis and trading for Indian stock market

2007-08-23T11:28:00.000+05:30

Technical analysis is a vast subject and people(traders,investors,amateurs) are slowly realising this science as a gateway to successful intra-day trading and yes, long term investing, using some technical analysis software and trying to figure out what is expected the next day on the basis of stock filtration technique using some in built parameters in the software.
One such software is Metquotes, which can be downloaded from http://www.metquotes.com and is developed by myself in vbasic .net, this software uses my scanning methods and generates reports on the basis of the filtration methods using the End of Day stock quotes which are also downloaded by this software from http://www.nseindia.com
This software does scanning only on EOD(End of day) data, it does'nt provide real time data, now you will ask a question that why is this software based on EOD instead of real time data? the answer is, its not required at all.
Many traders these days are buying real time feeds from vendors on the websites and paying them nearly 3000-5000 monthly only for the real time feeds, which are mostly compatible with METASTOCK PROFESSIONAL, an Equis product, available at http://www.equis.com
What I tell to my clients...is that you don't need real time feeds from these vendors, instead choose a good broker which can provide real time quotes in a trading terminal which can be very economical and you have to pay only one time fee, Rs200 or Rs500, thats it!
The trading terminals have real time quotes and the stock graphs can be seen in those terminals, the prices of stocks change every other second in that terminal.
I have used all trading terminals, the best currently which is available is Angel Anywhere, from angel broking, www.angeltrade.com
Their software is pretty good designed for professional technical analysts. You can see at a time 6-10 graphs easily on the terminal, plot all types of indicators on the graphs and you can have bar and candle graphs. I normally use candlesticks for analysis so by default when I login into Angel Anywhere software, all the settings are loaded, which obviously I saved from last login.
My trading method for intra-day is, by scanning EOD data from METQUOTES, i choose the best stocks on the basis of volume and price breakout, then I do analysis of charts of the chosen stocks in METASTOCK PROFESSIONAL, and calculate the resistance and support levels.
The next day I track the same stocks and take buy/short sell positions in those stocks.
This looks pretty easy but requires lot of hard work, the phrase EASY MONEY, doesn't exist in the technical analysis field.
The main system which reduces my technical analysis time is METQUOTES, since it scans the break out stocks, and filters the laggards.
Metquotes is at http://www.metquotes.com
Data downloaded by metquotes is compatible with Amibroker software, available at http://www.amibroker.com

Expect Nifty support at 4000.

2007-08-22T09:41:00.000+05:30

The previous support of 4000 could be tested today in Nifty spot.Below 4000 things will look ugly. On the upside Nifty has a resistance at 4100, above which it can touch 4150.Most stocks/bluechips corrected with good volumes,weakness will prevail in the market, bounce back is expected and highly anticipitated currently.

How to trade in Forex from India?

2007-08-19T19:41:00.000+05:30

The Foreign Exchange, also referred to as the "Forex" or "Spot FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with over $1.2 trillion changing hands every single day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you see how giant the Foreign Exchange really is. In fact it is three times larger than all of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined.
What is traded on the Foreign Exchange? The answer is money. Forex trading is where the currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Therefore,Forex trading is always traded in pairs. The most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the US Dollar (USD). They are called ‘the Majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar (EUR/USD); the British Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF).The notable ‘commodity’ currency pairs that trade are the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and the Australian Dollar AUD/USD. Because there is not a central exchange for the Forex market, these pairs and their crosses are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of banks, multinationalcorporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders.Traditionally, currency trading has been a 'professionals only' market available exclusively to banks and large institutions, however, because of the rise of the new E-economy, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like you and I. Now almost anyone with a computerand an Internet connection can trade currencies just like the world's largest banks do. There are now over 6 million trading accounts worldwide up from 1.7 million in 1997.
BENEFITS OF FOREX TRADINGThere are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market as a business opportunity:
1.LEVERAGE: In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make extraordinary profits and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. Some Forex firms offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies.Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.
2.LIQUIDITY: Because the Forex Market is so large, it is also extremely liquid.This means that with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will. You are never 'stuck' in a trade. You can even set the online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (stop order).
3.PROFIT IN BOTH 'RISING' AND 'FALLING' MARKETS: On the stock markets, you can only make money if shares are rising, but in economic recession and falling 'bear' markets, there is little chance of making big money.Forex is different. One of the most exciting advantages of FX trading is the ability to generate profits whether a currency pair is 'up' or 'down'. A trader can profit by taking a 'long' position, (buying the currency pair at one price and selling itlater at a higher price), or a 'short' position, (selling the currency pair and buyingit back at a lower price). For example, if you think the US dollar will increase in value vs. the Japanese Yen then you will buy Dollars and sell Yen (go long). If you think the Yen will increase in value against the Dollar then you will sell Dollars and buy yen (go short). As long as the trader picks the right direction, a potential for profit always exists.
4. 24HRS: From Sunday evening to Friday Afternoon EST the Forex market never sleeps. This is very desirable for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.
5. FREE 'DEMO' ACCOUNTS, NEWS, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: Most Online Forex firms offer free 'Demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. These are very valuable resources for traderswho would like to hone their trading skills with 'virtual' money before opening a live trading account.
6.'MINI' TRADING: One might think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a lot of money. The fact is, it doesn't. Online Forex Firms now offer 'mini' trading accounts with a minimum account deposit of only $200-$500 with no commission trading. This makes Forex much more accessible to the average individual, without large, start-up capital.

Expect a rebound in Indian markets on monday!

2007-08-18T00:36:00.000+05:30

Here comes the good news, Dow jones roughly 150 points up right now and this means if it closes in +ve and that too in good shape, then a minimum 50-100 points gap up opening on monday in Nifty is very much possible and in Sensex a 300 points upside gap opening is possible as well.
We might see a good rebound on monday and those who were strong enough to take long positions today in Nifty will be rewarded on Monday with a positive opening.
4200 is expected to be a resistance, and i Expect Nifty to cross it if Dow closes in the green, and not to mention the Nikkei and Hang Seng which should also open in +ve on monday, as our indices rely on Asian indices as well.

Nifty below 4100, expect more weakness!

2007-08-17T11:30:00.000+05:30

Nifty has just fallen below its good support at 4100 which indicates further weakness in the index. The next support for it is now 4000 and only 4000 can save this market, below this small supports exist at 3950-3980.
This fall is being fuelled by other Asian indices, like Nikkei and Hangseng.
Bulls are advised to go to sleep!

How did the correction started? What is subprime loan?

2007-08-17T00:21:00.000+05:30

Many traders all over the worl might be asking this question to themselves about how this mess started and why all of a sudden such a huge correction occurred in US and world markets, the reason is over confidence and poor understanding of credit markets among US hedge funds, Banks and even credit rating companies like S&P and MOODY's.
A senior executive of a credit rating company in US in 2006 looked at the 6lac plus loans given in that year and saw that around more than 50% loans given not even a single person gave its first installment, this was a big jolt to the rating company and they decided to downgrade their ratings from tiple AAA to double BB which means not suitable for retail investing or long term investing.
This downgradation led to panic among traders and made a selloff this year.
Many other reasons were behind this.In 2006 falling interest rates and rising housing rates led to over confidence among big money lenders and they started giving loans to people with bad credit ratings and even to those who didnt had any documents, showing the over confidence among the banks and private lenders that the subprime borrowers will payback the principle amount within the time duration, which didnt happened,forget about principle amount, most of them didnt even pay their first installment.
This was the starting of a big fall in the worlds strongest economy called USA.
Soon a fall in housing rates happened which led to big panic among home owners and for those especially who have taken loans to invest in new housing areas,these people decided to backoff from paying off their debts and which led to liquidity crunch among banks and private lenders, and eventually led to filing of bankruptcy.
The situation can even go worse as the rumour of US's big mortgage company Countrywide might file for bankruptcy, if confirmed.

God save USA and the World markets.

Expect further correction in Indian markets

2007-08-16T23:35:00.000+05:30

Currently when this post is being written the DOW jones is down by 140 points, it was around 300 points down a few hours back, it has recovered a lot nearly 50% from its current day fall, but this doesnt mean that weakness is over.Weakness is still there and I expect further correction in DOW JONES which will lead to a correction in Indian markets as well.
I expect sensex to touch around 13700 level, from where some bounceback or recovery is expected.
The correction in DOW Jones was mainly due to subprime market in US where the borrowers became defaulters and this led to a heavy sell off in NYSE leading to liquidity crunch and many leading funds declaring bankruptcy in US.